While the short term environment for Southeast Asia is clouded by economic uncertainty and governance issues, the venture ecosystems of Vietnam and Indonesia inevitably continue to evolve, driven by:

1. the unique trajectory of their unicorn flywheels vis-a-vis global expansion opportunities and investor pools
2. government momentum around ease of doing business (and investing) as well as digital transformation
3. And their role in the wider geopolitical and trade landscape

We take a look at each of these drivers and what these mean for global investments:

(1) A weathered, maturing market or an untapped, unproven market? What matters is proving global / multi-market outcomes.

As arbitrary as the valuation of unicorns can often be, and regardless of the exit outcome of the unicorn, it is clear that the growth of a unicorn population of an ecosystem often acts as an accelerant to drive further talent and capital flywheel in a market. One could surmise that the opposite of this correlation might apply as well. The shrinking of a unicorn population can slow down the talent and capital flywheel).

Regardless, it speeds up the learning curve of an ecosystem through pain or gain, enabling a wider pool of operators and investors to learn what scaling a particular business model in a particular industry look like from that market.

In this regard, Indonesia has gone through several more cycles of unicorns, and puts it in a position of developing business models increasingly more mature (notwithstanding the cost of failures).

Vietnam on other hand has fewer unicorns but also benefits from having a view of what the Indonesian ecosystem has produced to potentially test certain business models more prudently.

But both geographies have still not yet unlocked global expansion in the same way that companies in Singapore have (which Singapore startups have had to do out of necessity). Especially in this tight fundraising market, the value of being able to show venture outcomes from global growth trajectories becomes more valuable. This is where global capital is likely to reap the most returns — in fostering these multi-market expansions and increasing the export capabilities of industries. 

(2) Inbound driven investment activity or outreach driven investment activity? What matters is greater government investment into tech infrastructure.

Both countries have undergone major political transitions in the past year leading up to 2025, but with different trajectories. On the one hand, Vietnam has seen major institutional restructuring following new leadership sworn in Oct 2024, with the aim to make it easier to set up and invest in local businesses. All of this is on the back of increasing interest from global supply chain leaders in the market with the onset of a second term Trump administration.

On the other hand, Indonesia has had a rocky transition year with a government bureaucracy that has increasingly become “bloated”, as a Jakarta Post article put it. Paired with its inclusion into BRICS, 2025 can see an Indonesia navigating internal consolidation as it looks to continue opening up multilateral economic opportunities (especially in EVs, cloud centers, etc.).

Regardless of the political and bureaucratic trajectory, both countries continue to promote and incentivize investment in technological infrastructure. What global investors and corporates looking at tapping into this momentum will have to weigh is the competitive nature of the opportunity in each market versus the challenges in setting up local presences and navigating local bureaucracy. 

(3) US-led export market or a China-led export market? What matters is the technology’s supply chain fit with the market.

While Vietnam counts the US as its biggest export market to-date (followed by China), Indonesia is the reverse, counting China as its biggest export market to-date (followed by the US). On the other hand, while US based companies over the past year have been increasing their industrial operations share in Vietnam (Apple, Google, Nike, Intel), Indonesia (especially Jakarta) has been wooing investments into renewable and alternative energy (solar especially) and data centers.

In 2025, both markets look to be key battlegrounds for export tensions that are only expected to deepen in this second Trump term. These investment shifts are spread out across key fundamental technologies and their applications, from semiconductors for AI to batteries for EVs.

It will be important for global investors and corporates to look at alignment between these technologies and their supply chain opportunity (how much of it is locked in each of these markets or is more cost-effective outsourced), as this will drive priorities for exports, government infrastructure investment, and in the long tail of it, startup building as well.