Editor’s Note: Taken from Tonik CEO and founder Greg Krasnov‘s LinkedIn post on March 6

In the last couple of weeks, there’s been no shortage of posts about Ukraine and the future of NATO. As many of you know, Ukraine and Europe are also close to my heart, and it pains me deeply to watch the ongoing breakdown of transatlanticism.

But I think there’s not enough being said yet about how this impacts our global community of fintech founders: how these changing geopolitical fault lines can shake up our industry. So here’s my 5 cents on this.

Beyond the headlines, rising protectionism and tariff-led inflation will be pushing interest rates higher, with a potential for eroding lending margins, and driving a more cautious stance from VCs and wholesale lenders. Add in looming data localization measures and suddenly founders who rely on cloud infrastructure and cross-border funding are likely to be navigating a much more complex maze.

What do I think fintech builders should be thinking about?

(1) Greater focus on organic funding

It’s time to turn more to deposit-based models rather than short-term wholesale capital. This is actually the main reason that while starting Tonik we went directly to the BSP regulator and pioneered the digital bank license category – so we could access the cheap and scalable ($300B) PH deposit market.

Editor’s Note: Check out our docu-podcast with Greg on this story

(2) Doubling down on profitability

Achieve this through tighter unit economics and sustainable scaling, so you aren’t caught flat-footed if fundraising gets choppy. We are already observing a “risk-off” driven sell-off in the public equity markets, private markets are likely to follow.

Editor’s Note: Greg recently shared Tonik’s 2024 year-end financial performance

(3) Staying relentlessly compliant esp on data

With the prospect of stricter data rules around every corner, robust data governance and risk frameworks are a must if you want to thrive in an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global environment.

(4) And let’s not forget the upside.

In an era of shifting regulations, fintechs that can move quickly to address emerging market gaps—like compliant cloud solutions, or profitable mass market lending—can seize new opportunities left behind by slower and more risk-averse incumbents. When markets get tougher and more fragmented, those who adapt fastest and deliver real value to underserved customers stand to gain the most!

Editor’s Note: On that note of upside, Tonik recently crossed 1 million loans disbursed! 

Despite the increasingly “doomy and gloomy” global discourse on this, I remain very optimistic for our industry.

Fintech plays a crucial role in making financial services faster, cheaper, and more accessible—particularly across emerging markets, where inclusion is often the difference between economic opportunity and stagnation.

If we keep our eyes on strong fundamentals and protect the interests of our customers, employees, and shareholders, we’ll continue driving meaningful innovation through whatever storms come our way.